As the 2024 U.S. elections approach, global financial markets are closely watching the race between Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. The outcome of the election will not only shape U.S. domestic and foreign policies but also have significant implications for the forex market, particularly for emerging markets like those in Africa.

Trump’s Return?
If Trump secures the presidency, we can expect a continuation of his America-first economic policies. In his previous administration, Trump’s approach to trade wars, tariffs, and corporate tax cuts made the dollar stronger. This could mean higher volatility for currencies tied to commodity exports like the South African rand (ZAR) or the Nigerian naira (NGN), as U.S. protectionist measures may weaken global trade. The dollar may also surge due to investor flight to safety, putting pressure on emerging markets.

Kamala Harris and Policy Continuity
On the other hand, Kamala Harris represents a continuation of Biden’s policies, with a focus on diplomacy, climate change, and multilateral trade agreements. A Harris victory could stabilize global markets, especially in Africa, where foreign aid and trade relations may benefit. The U.S. dollar might remain less volatile, but key decisions on interest rates, inflation, and growth will continue to shape currency movements across the globe.

What Does This Mean for Forex Traders in Africa?
Forex traders should be prepared for heightened volatility in the run-up to the election. The U.S. dollar remains a global benchmark currency, and shifts in policy, trade relations, and market sentiment in response to election developments could create both risk and opportunity. Keeping a close eye on political shifts, economic data, and Federal Reserve policy will be key for traders to navigate the turbulent waters ahead.

In conclusion, whether it’s Trump or Harris, the U.S. election will undoubtedly influence the forex market. Traders in Africa should stay informed and agile, ready to adapt to rapid market changes as the election season unfolds.